For decades, maize has been viewed as Kenya’s staple and the undisputed king of the food basket counties of Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, and Nakuru. Yet, a closer look at returns per acre shows that maize may no longer be the smartest crop choice for farmers in these high rainfall regions. Coffee, on the other hand, presents an untapped opportunity that could transform the fortunes of both farmers and the country.
Farming is first and foremost a business, and farmers naturally gravitate toward ventures that deliver the best returns on their land. When comparing maize and coffee, the difference is staggering. Take the Ruiru 11 coffee variety, for instance. At a spacing of 2m by 2.5m, one acre can hold about 1,000 trees. By the fifth year, a well-managed tree produces an average of 10 kilograms of cherry. At a conservative price of KSh 80 per kilogram, this translates to KSh 800,000 gross revenue per acre.
By contrast, maize under good management yields about 20 bags per acre. At a strong price of KSh 4,000 per bag, the total comes to just KSh 80,000. Simply put, a maize farmer would need ten years to earn what a coffee farmer makes in one season. Choosing maize worth KSh 80,000 over coffee that generates KSh 800,000 per acre represents a massive misallocation of resources.
The fear that switching large tracts of North Rift land from maize to coffee would trigger hunger is misplaced. Food security can still be maintained by designating other regions for maize production. Counties such as Makueni, Kitui, Machakos, Isiolo, and Marsabit have the potential to become reliable maize zones under irrigation. These areas enjoy faster maize maturity compared to traditional growing regions, giving them a comparative advantage.
The key lies in water management. Kenya receives two rainy seasons annually, yet most of this water drains into the ocean. With proper investment in dams and water harvesting, irrigation could turn ASAL regions into highly productive maize belts. This would more than compensate for any maize acreage shifted to coffee.
Meanwhile, global demand for coffee remains strong. Even if the entire North Rift were planted with coffee, the international market would easily absorb the supply. Expanding coffee acreage would boost export earnings, strengthen foreign exchange reserves, and raise farmer incomes tenfold.
Kenya stands at a crossroads. Insisting that maize remain king in the North Rift ignores the economic reality. Coffee offers greater prosperity, higher farmer returns, and stronger national revenue. The numbers don’t lie coffee, not maize, holds the key to Kenya’s agricultural future.
