Kenya faces a potential economic loss of Sh1 trillion and deepening food insecurity following the government’s 2023 withdrawal of eight key pesticide ingredients, according to a new report. The policy shift, which affected over 140 pest control products, could result in a 7.28% drop in GDP by 2025, with smallholder farmers bearing the brunt.
The report, Impact Assessment on the Withdrawal of Eight Active Ingredients and Associated Pest Control Products in Kenya, was commissioned by the Agrochemical Association of Kenya and CropLife Kenya. It warns that the ban, implemented without a clear transition plan, has left farmers exposed to escalating pest pressures driven by Kenya’s warming climate.
“This is not just about pesticides; it’s about food security, farmer incomes and national stability,” said AAK CEO Eric Kimunguyi.
Surveying 155 smallholder farmers and consulting 67 experts, the report found that 57% of farmers lose income to pests annually, and nearly half lose food. Some crops, such as maize, wheat, potatoes, tomatoes, coffee, and French beans, now face limited or no effective pest control options.
The loss of these pesticides could cause a 17.6% drop in agricultural income by 2025, with an estimated Sh124.6 billion loss in farmer earnings that year alone. By 2034, that figure could grow to Sh487.8 billion. Households may also incur Sh183 billion in food replacement costs in 2025 as farmers shift to subsistence.
Crucially, the banned products contributed to protecting crops that account for 63% of Kenya’s daily calorie intake. Without them, average caloric consumption could fall to crisis levels 1,872 calories per day in 2025, dropping to 1,767 by 2034.
Export sectors are also threatened. Four of Kenya’s top five exports tea, coffee, cut flowers, and fruits face production declines. The withdrawal could lead to Sh1.43 trillion in export losses over a decade, especially if EU market access is restricted due to quarantine pest risks.
The report urges a transparent pesticide approval system, investment in Integrated Pest Management (IPM), and policy decisions based on Kenya’s food security not external trade pressures. Without urgent action, Kenya risks reversing decades of agricultural and economic gains.