Global production and consumption of animal-source foods are set to rise significantly over the next decade, particularly in middle-income countries where income growth is expected to drive dietary shifts. Consumption of livestock and fish products is projected to increase by 6 percent globally, but this figure climbs to 24 percent in lower-middle-income countries four times the global average. Despite this progress, low-income nations will continue to struggle with limited intake, averaging only 143 kilocalories daily from animal products, far below the 300-kcal benchmark for a healthy diet.
Agricultural and fish commodity production is expected to grow by 14 percent by 2034, driven mainly by productivity gains in developing economies. Output of meat, dairy, and eggs is projected to rise by 17 percent, with the total number of livestock increasing by 7 percent. This expansion will contribute to a 6 percent rise in direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, though carbon intensity per unit of output is expected to decline due to efficiency gains.
Productivity improvements are anticipated to lower real agricultural commodity prices, which could pose challenges for smallholder farmers vulnerable to market fluctuations. These farmers may also lack access to the technology and infrastructure necessary to boost productivity. Governments are encouraged to enhance support systems, improve market access, and promote inclusive agricultural innovation.
The report emphasizes the need to balance productivity with environmental sustainability. If global productivity were improved by 15 percent alongside investments in emissions-reducing technologies, undernourishment could be eliminated while simultaneously achieving a 7 percent reduction in agricultural GHG emissions. Recommended practices include precision farming, enhanced livestock feed, efficient nutrient and water management, and scalable techniques such as intercropping and crop rotation.
Trade continues to play a pivotal role in global food security, with 22 percent of all calories expected to cross international borders before reaching consumers. Strengthening multilateral cooperation and maintaining open, rule-based trade systems will be critical in addressing food imbalances, stabilizing prices, and enhancing both sustainability and food access.
Specific projections highlight a 1.1 percent annual increase in global cereal production, largely through yield improvements, while harvested areas expand marginally. Forty percent of cereals will be used for direct human consumption, 33 percent for animal feed, and the remainder for biofuel and industrial applications. Sub-Saharan Africa presents significant potential, with a rapidly growing cattle population but low productivity per animal. Meanwhile, India and Southeast Asia will drive global consumption growth, while consumption of fats and sweeteners is expected to decline in high-income countries.
