Uganda has experienced a significant decline in coffee prices in recent weeks, a situation attributed primarily to global market forces rather than local policies. Farmgate prices for Robusta FAQ currently range between UGX 10,000 and UGX 11,000, while Robusta Kiboko is being sold at UGX 5,000 to UGX 5,500. Arabica parchment is trading at UGX 14,000 to UGX 15,000, with Drugar (clean) priced at UGX 14,000.
This downward trend reflects a broader global slump in coffee prices driven by increased production in leading coffee-producing nations and ongoing market volatility. In previous years, Uganda benefited from high prices caused by global supply shortages and heightened demand, particularly due to weather disruptions in major exporting countries like Brazil and Vietnam. These circumstances allowed Uganda’s Robusta to gain significant traction in international markets.
However, improved weather conditions have since boosted yields in these leading coffee regions. Brazil’s coffee production is projected to increase by 0.5%, reaching 65 million bags in the 2025/26 season. Vietnam is also expected to see its output rise from 29 million to 31 million bags. The resulting surge in supply especially of Robusta has created an oversupply that is now driving global prices downward.
Vietnam’s ramped-up exports are playing a particularly pivotal role in this dynamic, saturating markets and reducing price competitiveness for other exporters. In addition to production factors, fluctuations in currency values, particularly in relation to the US dollar, and speculative activity on global commodities exchanges have further affected coffee pricing. International exchanges such as the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) for Arabica and the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) for Robusta continue to reflect these economic pressures. For instance, coffee futures on ICE recently reached their lowest point since January.
Despite these price pressures, Uganda’s coffee sector remains resilient. From June 2024 to May 2025, Uganda exported 7.43 million bags of coffee, generating USD 2.09 billion in earnings. This represents a 22% increase in volume and an impressive 93.6% surge in value compared to the previous year.
While price volatility presents challenges, Uganda’s coffee export performance indicates strong market fundamentals. Farmers are being encouraged to remain calm and focused on long-term growth. The advice is to continue planting coffee, improve crop quality, and invest in value addition to enhance earnings per kilogram. These measures are expected to keep Uganda competitive with leading producers like Brazil and Vietnam, even in a more saturated market.
