England could see the closure of up to 800 primary schools by 2029 due to falling pupil numbers, according to new research by the Education Policy Institute (EPI). The decline in student enrolment is largely driven by low birth rates, but in London, additional factors such as families moving abroad or choosing private schools are accelerating the trend.
National birth rates peaked in 2010, leading to a surge in primary school enrolment between 2014 and 2018. Councils responded by opening new schools and expanding existing ones. However, since then, birth rates have slowed significantly, causing pupil numbers to drop. Nationally, primary school enrolment peaked at 4.5 million in 2018-19, falling nearly 2% since, with a further 4% decrease expected over the next five years. By 2029, projections suggest only 4.24 million primary pupils will be enrolled a reduction equivalent to 800 single-form primary schools closing.
Jon Andrews, EPI’s head of analysis, highlighted the financial strain schools face when pupil numbers fall. “Schools with declining enrolment experience mounting financial pressures, which can ultimately threaten their long-term viability,” he said, noting that London saw enrolment declines earlier than other regions.
London is set to be the hardest hit, with nine of the ten local authorities experiencing the steepest declines, particularly Islington, Lambeth, and Southwark. The EPI also reported that 20% of children who started reception in 2017-18 had left the state system by Year 6, with 10% unaccounted for, possibly due to post-Brexit migration or pandemic-related factors.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, urged government support to help councils maintain schools. “Keeping schools open could enable smaller class sizes and more targeted support for pupils,” he said.
Lily Wielar, an EPI researcher, added that falling pupil numbers are influenced by more than just birth rates. Housing pressures, cost of living, and school quality also shape where families live and the education choices they make.
As England prepares for a shrinking primary school population, councils face tough decisions about school closures and mergers in the years ahead.
