Kenyans should prepare for continued high food prices in the coming months, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) has warned, citing persistent inflationary pressures and adverse weather conditions.
In its latest report to the Budget and Appropriations Committee, the PBO forecast that food inflation will remain elevated, driven largely by the anticipated below-average short rains between October and December 2025. These weather patterns are expected to strain agricultural production, particularly for vegetables and other essential food crops.
“Food inflation is expected to persist, in part as a result of below-average short rains anticipated between October and December,” the report noted. The warning comes against a backdrop of significant price increases in key food commodities between June 2024 and August 2025, including vegetables, cooking oil, and sugar. According to the PBO, erratic weather patterns played a key role in disrupting crop production, contributing to the surge in prices.
While the food sector faces challenges, the PBO offered some relief for consumers on the fuel front. The report highlighted a downward trend in fuel prices, reflecting shifts in global markets and an anticipated increase in oil supply. During the review period, kerosene prices fell by 9.7 per cent, diesel by 5.7 per cent, and petrol by 6.4 per cent. However, the report cautioned that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to pose a risk to global energy markets.
On the broader inflation outlook, the report indicated that core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and fuel, remained relatively stable, rising slightly from 2.8 per cent in June 2024 to 3.0 per cent in August 2025. This stability has been supported by a firm exchange rate and reforms under the Finance Act 2025 that improved tax administration without introducing new levies.
Other sectors, including clothing and footwear, health, and restaurant and accommodation services, experienced notable price increases during the same period. Overall, inflation remained within the Central Bank’s target range of 5 per cent ± 2.5 per cent, easing slightly from 4.6 per cent in June 2024 to 4.5 per cent in August 2025. Non-core inflation, which includes food and energy, declined from 10.1 per cent to 9.2 per cent.
The PBO’s report underscores the need for Kenyans to brace for higher food costs while benefiting from easing fuel prices, even as global and domestic risks continue to influence economic conditions.
