Kenya’s economy is bracing for ripple effects from newly imposed US trade tariffs, with the latest Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) Survey (September 2025) showing widespread concern across key sectors. The survey reveals that the Tourism, Hotels, and Restaurants sector tops the list of industries most worried about the potential impact, with 32.7% of respondents predicting significant challenges ahead.
The Manufacturing sector comes in second, with 22.4% of CEOs anticipating that the tariffs will disrupt production costs, supply chains, and export competitiveness. Industry analysts note that manufacturing, being heavily reliant on imported inputs and machinery, could face rising operational expenses as global supply dynamics shift.
Notably, Financial Services and Professional Services are also expected to feel the strain, with 12.2% of respondents in each category expressing concern. This suggests that the ripple effects of the tariffs extend beyond traditional trade-linked sectors, potentially affecting credit access, investment flows, and consultancy demand.
Meanwhile, ICT & Telecommunications and Wholesale and Retail Trade sectors each recorded 6.1%, indicating moderate exposure to the new tariff environment. These sectors could face indirect challenges, such as increased import costs for technology and consumer goods.
Interestingly, Agriculture—often seen as the backbone of Kenya’s economy—registered the lowest expected impact at 4.1%. Experts attribute this to the sector’s lower reliance on US-linked trade routes and inputs, as well as the diversification of agricultural export markets toward Europe and Asia.
Overall, the CBK report underscores the broad and diverse economic implications of the US tariffs. While the direct trade relationship between Kenya and the US remains relatively modest, the global interconnectedness of supply chains means that the effects are likely to be felt across multiple industries. Kenyan policymakers may need to explore new trade partnerships and support measures to shield vulnerable sectors from prolonged shocks.
