Kenya’s rice sector is facing a crisis, with farmers incurring losses as locally produced rice struggles to find buyers amid a surge in imports. The situation has been compounded by an ongoing court case that threatens to disrupt rice supplies in the country.
On Friday, Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe cautioned that Kenya could soon face both a spike in food prices and an acute shortage of rice if a petition seeking to block the importation of 500,000 tonnes of duty-free rice is upheld. The imports were intended to cushion the country from its widening supply deficit, but their suspension risks creating instability in the market.
Kenya’s annual rice demand stands at approximately 1.3 million tonnes, according to government data. However, local farmers only produce about 20 per cent of that demand, leaving a deficit of over 1 million tonnes that is filled mainly through imports. This dependence has exposed the country to global market shocks, shipping costs, and foreign exchange fluctuations, all of which directly affect consumer prices.
At the same time, domestic farmers particularly in Mwea, Ahero, and Kano rice-growing regions—say they are unable to sell existing stocks as cheaper imports continue to dominate the market. Many report being forced to sell their rice at throwaway prices, raising fears of financial ruin and disincentives for future production.
Experts argue that Kenya’s heavy reliance on imports points to structural weaknesses in the sector, including outdated irrigation systems, high input costs, limited mechanization, and inadequate marketing channels. Without urgent reforms and increased investment in local production, the country risks deepening its vulnerability to food insecurity.
Kagwe emphasized that the government is working on a dual strategy: securing short-term supply through controlled imports while ramping up long-term local production. Plans include expanding irrigated acreage, subsidizing certified seeds, and supporting farmers with modern farming techniques.
For now, the balancing act remains delicate. Blocking imports could leave shelves empty and push prices higher, but unchecked foreign rice continues to stifle local farmers. The government’s next move, and the outcome of the court case, will determine whether Kenya edges closer to rice self-sufficiency or remains caught in a cycle of dependence and farmer distress.
