The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) has warned that eight of its member states are set to face serious trade disruptions following the introduction of new reciprocal tariffs by the United States government.
In a policy brief released on Tuesday, COMESA’s Division of Trade and Customs projected that the tariffs, which come into effect in 2025, could sharply reduce trade volumes and weaken key export sectors across the region.
The most affected countries include Madagascar (47%), Mauritius (40%), Libya (31%), Tunisia (28%), Democratic Republic of Congo (11%), Malawi (17%), Zimbabwe (18%), and Zambia, whose tariff rate is yet to be confirmed.
While the U.S. accounts for only 3–4 percent of COMESA’s exports and 4–5 percent of imports between 2019 and 2023, the bloc warns that the new duties will still create major supply and demand shocks. Higher production costs and consumer prices in the U.S. are expected to contract demand for imports, hurting African exporters of products such as Kenyan textiles and Zambian copper.
Dr. Christopher Onyango, COMESA’s Director of Trade and Customs, said the tariffs mark a sharp departure from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Enacted in 2000, AGOA gave duty-free access to qualifying African countries as a way to support economic growth. “The new tariffs represent a stark departure from AGOA’s intent, which was originally advocated by the U.S. government itself,” he noted.
The policy brief further warns of wider global trade tensions, as China and the European Union COMESA’s largest markets may retaliate against U.S. measures, worsening the situation. Estimates suggest such disputes could shrink global GDP by 0.43 percent, further depressing demand for African exports.
To counter these risks, COMESA is urging member states to deepen regional integration, expand intra-African trade, and strengthen value chains to reduce reliance on external markets. It has also called for cooperative trade negotiations with partners such as the EU, China, India, and the Middle East.
The bloc further appealed to the African Union Commission to engage Washington and uphold a rule-based international trading system. “COMESA remains committed to protecting the interests of its member states and advancing economic resilience,” the Secretariat said in its statement.
