A new survey by TIFA has revealed that a significant number of Kenyans expect opposition leader Raila Odinga to make a political comeback ahead of the 2027 General Election, despite his current alignment with President William Ruto’s broad-based government.
The poll, released on Wednesday, paints a complex picture of public sentiment regarding the veteran politician’s future. According to the findings, 28% of respondents believe Raila will rejoin the opposition and mount a fifth bid for the presidency in 2027. This suggests that a substantial portion of the public still views him as a central figure in Kenya’s political landscape, even after his recent collaboration with President Ruto.
Meanwhile, 23% of Kenyans think Raila will opt to support President Ruto’s re-election bid, indicating that his role within the government may evolve into that of a political kingmaker rather than a contender. Another 18% believe he will back a different opposition candidate, further highlighting the public’s uncertainty about his exact political direction.
Interestingly, 14% of those surveyed predict that Raila will retire from active politics, a possibility that has been frequently discussed given his long political career and previous statements suggesting a willingness to step back. However, with 16% of Kenyans remaining unsure about his intentions, it is clear that his political future remains a subject of national speculation.
The TIFA poll also gauged public opinion on the broad-based government formed after the contentious bipartisan talks that followed the 2022 elections. A majority of Kenyans (54%) expressed opposition to the arrangement, citing concerns over its effectiveness and the compromise of opposition oversight. In contrast, 22% supported the initiative, and 25% said they had no opinion.
As the 2027 elections draw nearer, Raila Odinga’s eventual decision whether to contest, support a candidate, or retire will likely have a profound impact on Kenya’s political dynamics. The divided opinion over the broad-based government also underscores the growing need for clarity and direction in the country’s leadership as Kenyans navigate a period of political transition.
