Former Public Service Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria has predicted that the 2027 presidential election will be decided in a run-off, saying no candidate will secure an outright win in the first round.
In a statement on Sunday, September 28, Kuria said Kenya’s democracy had matured to a point where a run-off is inevitable. He described the 2027 polls as a “new chapter” in the country’s democratic journey, pointing to the increasing diversity of political actors and the growing competitiveness of elections.
Under Article 138(4) of the Constitution, a candidate can only win the presidency in the first round if they meet two strict thresholds. They must secure more than half of all valid votes cast nationwide (50 per cent plus one), and at least 25 per cent of the votes in more than half of the 47 counties. These rules ensure broad national support and discourage regionally dominated victories.
As the 2027 General Election approaches, several figures are positioning themselves as challengers to President William Ruto, who is seeking a second term. Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has already declared his bid for the top seat. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has also confirmed his intention to contest, while veteran politician Martha Karua is expected to play a major role either as a candidate or kingmaker.
Other notable figures include former Chief Justice David Maraga, former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, and activist Boniface Mwangi, who has vowed to represent ordinary citizens in the race.
Speculation still surrounds opposition leader Raila Odinga, who has not announced his plans. Analysts believe he could either run again, back a candidate, or align more closely with Ruto under the current government arrangement.
Kuria’s prediction highlights the likelihood of a highly contested election in 2027, one that could mark the first presidential run-off in Kenya’s history.
