The upcoming by-elections across key regions in Kenya are shaping up to be an early litmus test for the 2027 General Election. With contests slated for Coast, Western, and Northeastern regions traditional political battlegrounds the stakes are high for both the Kenya Kwanza administration and the opposition.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has listed 23 pending by-elections, including one Senate seat, six National Assembly seats, and 16 County Assembly seats. Notably, parliamentary seats up for grabs include Malava (Western), Banisa (Northeastern), and Magarini (Coast) regions with significant voter blocs that will be crucial in 2027.
In Malava, the race has already ignited fierce political rivalry. Lawyer Edgar Busiega is set to fly the Democratic Congress Party (DCP) flag, while former Health Workers Union boss Seth Panyako will contest under the DAP-K ticket. ODM’s Caleb Amisi has warned that any party allied to the ruling UDA coalition will face rejection in the constituency, citing dissatisfaction with the government on the ground.
Meanwhile, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi is intensifying efforts to swing Malava in favour of UDA, having held strategic meetings with local leaders. This aligns with the broader push by Kenya Kwanza to strengthen its foothold in Western Kenya, home to over 2.2 million voters.
In the Coast region, the Magarini by-election will serve as a barometer for the nearly 2 million votes at stake in the region. Similarly, the Banisa by-election in Mandera will hint at political leanings in Northeastern, which had 882,677 voters in 2022.
Historically, by-election outcomes have mirrored future general election trends. In 2021, UDA’s victories in Kiambaa, Juja, and Rurii foreshadowed its strong performance in Mt Kenya during the 2022 elections.
With President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga now cooperating, their influence in Rift Valley and Nyanza appears secured. However, the emergence of rival factions, including allies of Kalonzo Musyoka and Rigathi Gachagua, signals a deepening contest across the remaining regions.
The by-elections, therefore, are more than just local contests—they are strategic indicators of political momentum ahead of 2027.
