The 2025 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe promises to be one of the most unpredictable renewals in recent memory after heavy rain transformed the Longchamp track conditions from good-to-soft to “proper soft.” The shift in the going has dramatically altered the complexion of the race, especially for the three Japanese runners Byzantine Dream, Alohi Alii, and Croix Du Nord who now face an uphill battle against the softer surface.
Japanese horses, traditionally bred for faster ground, have long sought to end their elusive quest for Arc glory. This year’s trio entered the race with strong credentials, each a winner of a recognised trial, raising hopes that Japan could finally claim victory after more than five decades of trying. However, wide draws and testing ground have lengthened their odds, leaving them at 14-1 or higher and significantly diminishing their prospects.
In contrast, European contenders are well-positioned to take advantage of the conditions. The betting is now dominated by runners from France, Ireland, and England, with Aidan O’Brien’s unbeaten filly Minnie Hauk and Aventure, winner of the Prix Vermeille, leading the market. Minnie Hauk, though, faces the challenge of breaking from the inside stall one—historically a poor draw at Longchamp—while Aventure’s Vermeille victory came under circumstances that raise some doubts about her form.
André Fabre, already the most successful trainer in Arc history with eight wins, appears well placed for a ninth triumph. His runners Sosie and Cualificar both appeal strongly, particularly Cualificar, who captured the Prix Niel in fine style last month. Fabre has a proven record of using the Niel as a springboard for Arc glory, having won the race six times with three-year-olds who later triumphed in the main event.
Daryz also enters the race as an intriguing prospect. Lightly raced and bred for stamina, he was unlucky not to beat Croix Du Nord in their recent encounter and is expected to relish the step up to a mile and a half. Both Daryz and Cualificar are progressive types capable of producing their best on the big day.
With William Buick aboard and an ideal draw in stall eight, Cualificar represents exceptional value at around 12-1. On soft ground that should suit him perfectly, Fabre’s rising star looks primed to deliver France’s master trainer yet another historic Arc victory.
