Kenyans should prepare for a hotter and drier December as new forecasts warn of below-average rainfall and rising temperatures across much of the country. According to the latest outlook from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), the December 2025 to February 2026 period is likely to bring suppressed rainfall driven by evolving global ocean conditions.
The regional forecast shows that a developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—combined with a possible La Niña event—will weaken the short rains. ICPAC notes that Kenya, southern Uganda and most parts of Tanzania are expected to experience drier-than-usual conditions, especially in central to southern Kenya. These areas are projected to record below-normal rainfall, putting pressure on farming, water supply and pastoral livelihoods.
Only a few pockets in Ethiopia, Kenya and northeastern Somalia may record slightly cooler conditions, but the broader region is expected to experience warmer-than-usual temperatures throughout the season.
The Kenya Meteorological Department echoes these warnings in its October–November–December (OND) 2025 short rains forecast. Most parts of the northeast, the southeastern lowlands and the Coast are likely to receive below-average rainfall. The South and Central Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, Nairobi, parts of the highlands east of the Rift and isolated areas of Kajiado, Samburu and Marsabit may see near to below-average rainfall.
However, not all regions will be dry. The highlands west of the Rift Valley and some areas in the northwest could receive near to above-average rainfall, offering some relief.
Charles Mugah of KMD attributes the expected dryness to the evolving negative IOD. He explains that the difference in sea surface temperatures across the Indian Ocean is already influencing regional weather patterns. The World Meteorological Organization estimates a 55–60% chance of La Niña forming between September and December 2025, which could further suppress rainfall.
KMD warns that temperatures will rise across most regions, with central and eastern counties likely to face notably warmer conditions. Uneven rainfall distribution, prolonged dry spells and isolated storms are also expected.
