South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir has returned from a 10-day trip to the United Arab Emirates amid swirling rumours about his deteriorating health and growing concern over a volatile succession plan. While state media described the visit as an effort to foster economic cooperation, members of his entourage confirmed the 73-year-old was undergoing medical tests.
Kiir’s visibly frail condition has reignited long-standing concerns about leadership stability in the world’s youngest country, which has been grappling with poverty, conflict, and political instability since its 2011 independence. Analysts believe Kiir is now pushing forward a plan to install his close ally, businessman Benjamin Bol Mel, as his successor.
Bol Mel, who was controversially appointed second vice-president in February and later made deputy head of the ruling party, is widely seen as Kiir’s heir-apparent. A former construction magnate with close ties to Kiir’s family finances, Bol Mel was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2017 for alleged corruption. His rising influence comes as rivals are being methodically sidelined.
In recent months, Kiir’s government placed former vice-president and long-time rival Riek Machar under house arrest. Security forces have targeted Machar’s military bases and other opposition groups from his Nuer ethnic group, with over 700 people reportedly killed in clashes between January and March, according to the United Nations.
During Kiir’s absence, Bol Mel chaired a cabinet meeting, a move many see as symbolic of a transition already underway. “It seems to be a script written a long time ago and being implemented in phases,” said Wani Michael, a South Sudanese activist now in exile.
Despite the heightened tensions and increased repression, a return to full-scale war has so far been avoided. However, concerns remain over Bol Mel’s legitimacy and the absence of democratic processes. South Sudan has never held a general election, and polls scheduled for 2024 were recently pushed to 2026.
“Elections are the only viable way for a peaceful transfer of power,” said Edmund Yakani, head of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organisation. “We need the power of our vote in shaping the future—not the bullet, and not leaders imposed on us.”
