Iran has issued a stern warning that it will retaliate if the United Nations Security Council proceeds with reimposing sanctions under the “snapback” mechanism outlined in the 2015 nuclear deal. This warning comes as international powers consider renewed pressure on Tehran to curb its nuclear program.
A spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry declared that any move to initiate snapback sanctions lacks legal and political legitimacy and would be met with a proportional response. The statement, while not specifying the nature of the retaliation, comes amid rising concern that the window to activate these measures is quickly closing. Under the terms of the original Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the opportunity to enforce snapback sanctions expires on October 18.
The comments coincide with the 10-year anniversary of the JCPOA, an agreement initially aimed at halting Iran’s nuclear development in exchange for sanctions relief. The deal allows any participating country to trigger a snapback of international sanctions if Iran is deemed to be in violation. However, since the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018, its ability to invoke the mechanism has been questioned by other signatories.
Despite repeated calls to act, no member of the Security Council or JCPOA has yet activated the mechanism. Some argue that while the snapback process technically requires only one permanent Security Council member to proceed, political and diplomatic risks have deterred action. The uncertainty about how Iran would respond—and the potential for escalation—has contributed to the reluctance.
Experts warn that one of the most concerning retaliatory actions Iran might take is abandoning the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The NPT is a cornerstone of global nuclear disarmament efforts and binds signatories to forgo developing or spreading nuclear weapons. Iran suspending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency has already raised alarms following recent military strikes on its nuclear facilities.
Analysts suggest that if Iran exits the NPT, it would further complicate any diplomatic or military containment strategy. There are concerns about the absence of a coordinated strategy among Western powers, particularly regarding how to respond post-snapback if Iran retaliates. Some question whether the U.S. or its allies have laid out a clear roadmap or prepared effective deterrents to dissuade Tehran from escalating.
Though assessments indicate that Iran’s nuclear program has been delayed by up to two years, many believe the country’s long-term ambitions remain intact. The persistence of its ties with hostile actors and terrorist networks keeps Iran firmly in the spotlight as a key threat to international security.
There is growing speculation that a European nation may soon take the initiative to enforce snapback sanctions. Reports suggested that Germany could trigger the process imminently, with support from key Western officials. However, those claims remain unconfirmed, and conflicting statements from officials have cast doubt on whether such action is truly imminent.
With time running out and the presidency of the Security Council rotating to Russia in October, diplomatic urgency is mounting. Pushing the snapback through would require approximately six weeks, making the timeline increasingly tight for any nation willing to act.
