Israel’s latest strikes on Iran have intensified a long-simmering conflict, with the possibility of regime change in Tehran now emerging as a potential though highly risky endgame for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The targeted killing of high-ranking Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials marks a significant escalation, and Netanyahu’s statements indicate a wider ambition: to weaken or even topple the Islamic Republic.
Netanyahu has called on the Iranian people to rise against what he labels an “evil and oppressive regime.” It’s a message aimed at tapping into deep public discontent in Iran, where economic hardship, lack of freedoms, and human rights abuses especially against women and minorities—have fuelled unrest in recent years. The 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests shook the country, but they failed to result in a unified opposition capable of regime change.
By striking top Iranian military leaders, Israel may be hoping to destabilize the regime, prompting an uprising. However, this is a dangerous bet. Power in Iran is concentrated in the hands of hardliners, especially within the IRGC and unelected bodies. Rather than crumbling, the regime could double down, taking a more aggressive stance regionally.
Even if a collapse were triggered, it is unclear who would fill the vacuum. Exiled opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi and groups like the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK) are either too fragmented or too controversial within Iran. There’s no clear alternative ready to govern a nation of 90 million people, raising the risk of chaos.
On the other side, Iran’s retaliation has been measured but forceful. Tehran may continue with controlled military responses while avoiding a direct war with the US. Yet any misstep could spiral into a wider regional conflict, drawing in global powers.
Israel’s strategy, while bold, remains a gamble with no guarantee of success and a high risk of regional instability. The Middle East now watches closely, uncertain whether this moment will reshape Iran or plunge the region into deeper turmoil.
