Japan’s ruling coalition is projected to lose its majority in the upper house, according to exit polls from Sunday’s tightly contested election, dealing a severe political blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The NHK broadcaster estimates the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito will win between 32 and 51 seats barely enough to maintain control of the 248-seat chamber.
The setback follows the coalition’s earlier loss of its majority in the more powerful lower house and could significantly undermine Ishiba’s authority, less than a year into his leadership. Though Ishiba insists he will stay on as prime minister, the mounting pressure may force his resignation, as happened with previous leaders in similar situations.
“This is a critical moment we are engaged in sensitive negotiations with the United States over tariffs, and we must not derail these efforts,” Ishiba told reporters in Tokyo.
Sunday’s vote came amid growing voter frustration over the rising cost of living, particularly food prices like rice, and recent political scandals surrounding the LDP. Public dissatisfaction has been further exacerbated by inflation and Japan’s ongoing economic challenges.
Analysts believe that if the coalition fails to win at least 46 seats, it would mark its worst showing since its formation in 1999. A poor result could trigger a leadership contest within the LDP, with figures such as Sanae Takaichi, Takayuki Kobayashi, and Shinjiro Koizumi seen as potential challengers.
Adding to the ruling coalition’s woes is the rise of the right-wing Sanseito party, which is projected to secure seven seats. Gaining momentum on social media during the pandemic by pushing anti-vaccine and anti-globalist conspiracy theories, the party attracted conservative voters with its “Japanese First” and anti-immigration platform.
Japan’s strict immigration policies are under renewed scrutiny as foreign residents and tourists surge, straining local resources and heightening nationalist sentiments. In response, Ishiba recently established a task force to address alleged crimes by foreign nationals a move seen as a last-minute appeal to conservatives.
If exit poll predictions hold, Japan may be headed for political upheaval at a time of economic uncertainty and critical international negotiations.
