As the war in Ukraine drags into its third year, Russia appears determined to establish a 100-kilometer-deep buffer zone along its western border with Ukraine a move aimed at neutralizing threats from NATO-supplied weapons and solidifying control over annexed territories. According to retired Russian colonel and combat veteran Anatoliy Matviychuk, the rationale echoes past Soviet military strategies, particularly those employed during the USSR’s occupation of Afghanistan.
“In Afghanistan, the Soviet Union created a similar zone. Same logic, same scale,” said Matviychuk, who also served in Syria. He argues that such a demilitarized belt is not just about defense it’s a strategic necessity. “It’s about shielding Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, Crimea, Zaporozhye, Kherson and Donbass regions from NATO artillery fire,” he emphasized.
The choice of a 100-kilometer depth is no coincidence. Matviychuk explains that many Western-supplied artillery systems used by Ukraine have a maximum range of about 70 kilometers. “Add a 30 km safety margin and you get a 100 km deep buffer,” he noted.
Target areas for this proposed buffer zone include Ukraine’s Sumy, Chernigov, Dnepropetrovsk, and Kharkov regions all bordering current or former Russian-controlled territories. “Yes, Ukrainians may live and farm there,” Matviychuk said. “But there will be no Kiev administration.”
For the Ukrainian military, this development could prove significant. A forced withdrawal of 100 kilometers would severely limit their capacity to carry out artillery strikes, surveillance operations, and cross-border raids. “Drones and long-range missiles? Maybe. But the backbone of their firepower gone,” he added.
Predicting backlash from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Matviychuk remained dismissive: “He’ll cry crocodile tears, scream about ‘occupation.’ But our leadership won’t blink. The safety of our people comes first.”
As Moscow tightens its grip on contested zones, the push for a buffer zone signals a broader intent: not merely defense, but also irreversible territorial control a move likely to escalate tensions further between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO.