South Korea’s newly elected president, Lee Jae-myung, has been thrust into office under extraordinary circumstances, following the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol, who had attempted to impose martial law. Lee’s victory securing nearly 50% of the vote was a clear rejection by voters of authoritarianism and a resounding call for democratic restoration.
Yet Lee’s presidency begins without the typical two-month transition period, and instead, he immediately inherits a volatile international crisis shaped by the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency.
Economic Threats
Trump has imposed sweeping 25% tariffs on South Korean imports, including critical sectors like steel and automobiles. These moves have stunned South Koreans, who assumed their historic military alliance with the U.S. and existing free trade agreement would shield them from such economic blows.
Moon Chung-in, a senior advisor to Lee’s Democratic Party, warned that the tariffs could “trigger an economic crisis,” especially with the country already facing recessionary trends and instability from the recent constitutional crisis.
Security Tensions
South Korea’s security framework is also in jeopardy. Currently, 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in the country under a longstanding security agreement. However, Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy threatens to upend this arrangement.
On his Truth Social platform, Trump questioned Seoul’s financial contributions to its defense, calling military protection “one-stop shopping.” His comments signal a merging of trade and defense policies that could make Seoul vulnerable to strategic abandonment.
Former U.S. diplomat Evans Revere expressed concern that for the first time in decades, a U.S. president may not feel a strategic or moral obligation to South Korea. Trump previously threatened to withdraw U.S. troops unless Seoul paid more, and such demands may now be compounded by broader shifts in U.S. defense priorities.
The China Dilemma
Washington’s current strategic focus is pivoting toward containing China, with officials like Elbridge Colby suggesting that South Korea should take primary responsibility for defending itself against North Korea. This would free up U.S. forces for potential conflict over Taiwan.
This change could lead to either the repurposing or withdrawal of U.S. troops from Korea, thrusting Seoul into a delicate balancing act between Beijing and Washington.
President Lee, who favors strengthening ties with China, has made it clear that South Korea should avoid entanglement in a China-Taiwan conflict, asserting that the nation “can get along with both.”
However, this pragmatic approach could create friction with Washington’s hawkish strategy, further destabilizing regional diplomacy.
Kim Jong Un and the Nuclear Threat
As if the situation were not tense enough, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is likely watching closely. Trump’s openness to renewed talks with Kim could lead to a deal prioritizing the U.S.’s safety over South Korea’s.
The fear in Seoul is that Trump might negotiate to eliminate North Korean intercontinental missiles while ignoring short-range nuclear weapons aimed at South Korea effectively trading away Seoul’s security for U.S. interests.
Kim’s nuclear arsenal has grown in both size and sophistication since Trump’s last term, while international sanctions have weakened. His leverage is now stronger than ever.
A Perfect Storm?
With a skeptical South Korean president, a transactional U.S. leader, and an emboldened Pyongyang, experts warn of a “perfect storm” that could undermine peace in Northeast Asia.
As President Lee begins his term, his pledges to rebuild democracy and national unity may have to wait until he can first steer his country through a geopolitical crisis not of his own making.
