A major report published in The Lancet medical journal warns that sweeping foreign aid cuts under U.S. President Donald Trump could result in over 14 million additional deaths globally by 2030 with a third of those being children under five.
The study, co-authored by Davide Rasella of the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, highlights the dire implications of slashing U.S. foreign assistance, particularly through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). According to Rasella, “For many low- and middle-income countries, the resulting shock would be comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict.” The research estimates that between 2001 and 2021, USAID funding helped prevent 91 million deaths across 133 developing countries.
However, in March, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that President Trump’s administration had cancelled over 80% of USAID programmes. The cuts amount to an 83% reduction in funding, drastically affecting health systems, food security, and humanitarian relief operations in vulnerable regions.
The timing of the report is significant, coinciding with a major United Nations-led aid conference in Seville, Spain the largest in a decade. Delegates are grappling with how to respond to the gap left by the world’s largest aid donor stepping back from its role.
The impact is already being felt. UN officials report worsening humanitarian conditions, particularly in refugee camps. In Kenya’s Kakuma refugee camp, hundreds of thousands are suffering from reduced food rations. One UN official described the crisis as “slow starvation,” and the BBC reported harrowing scenes from a local hospital, where a malnourished baby was seen with wrinkled and peeling skin.
While Rubio stated that around 1,000 aid programs would continue under tighter U.S. State Department control, aid workers and researchers are skeptical about the effectiveness of such a transition. The Lancet report warns that if the funding gap remains, years of progress in global health could be undone, and millions of preventable deaths could follow.