As Australians prepare to head to the polls on May 3, a surprising figure is dominating the political conversation: U.S. President Donald Trump. While Australia once felt it had weathered a Trump presidency, his return has sent ripples through its domestic campaign, forcing leaders to rethink alliances and confront new uncertainties on the global stage.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, whose Labor Party is now leading in the polls, has found himself navigating an unexpected challenge maintaining Australia’s close ties with the United States while confronting the unpredictability of Trump’s trade and foreign policy moves. His criticism of Trump’s unannounced tariffs, calling them “not the act of a friend,” struck a chord with voters increasingly wary of global instability.
The Coalition’s Peter Dutton has positioned himself as the candidate capable of managing Trump, citing past experience with the U.S. administration. But that strategy has begun to backfire. His earlier praise of Trump’s controversial policies and the adoption of Trump-like slogans, including “Make Australia Great Again,” have drawn criticism and raised concerns among moderate voters.
Australia’s alliance with the U.S., underpinned by military cooperation and shared strategic interests through pacts like AUKUS, is under scrutiny. While only a small portion of Australia’s trade involves the U.S., the country relies heavily on American security guarantees especially amid rising tensions with China.
Analysts suggest that Trump’s looming presence may actually be helping Albanese. Voters appear to be rallying around the incumbent in the face of perceived external threats, echoing trends seen recently in Canada’s elections. A recent YouGov poll projects Labor to win 84 of 150 House seats a stronger mandate than anticipated just months ago.
Yet, regardless of who wins, the next Australian government faces a complex task: maintaining strategic alliances while asserting national interests in a volatile geopolitical climate. As one policy expert put it, “We have to make do with the hand we’ve been dealt” and in 2025, that hand includes Trump.
In the political rodeo of today, Australians will soon decide who they trust to stay in the saddle.
