Tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated dramatically following recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including the underground Fordo site. Iran responded with retaliatory strikes, framing the conflict as an attack on its “peaceful nuclear programme.” The question now dominating international headlines: Was Iran on the brink of building a nuclear weapon?
According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iran posed an imminent nuclear threat, claiming Tehran could produce a bomb in “a few months to a year.” Israeli intelligence alleged that Iran had made “concrete progress” in developing components for a nuclear weapon, including a uranium metal core and a neutron initiator.
However, independent analysts and international observers dispute the urgency of the threat. Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association noted that while Iran is at “near-zero breakout,” there is no clear evidence it has resumed weaponization efforts. This position aligns with the assessment of U.S. intelligence agencies, which continue to believe that Iran is not actively building a nuclear weapon and that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not reversed the 2003 decision to suspend the nuclear weapons programme.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently reported that Iran has stockpiled enough uranium enriched to 60% a short technical leap from weapons-grade to potentially make nine nuclear bombs. Yet the IAEA also stated it cannot verify that Iran’s program is solely peaceful due to lack of cooperation from Tehran, particularly concerning traces of man-made uranium found at undeclared sites.
Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear programme is for civilian energy and medical purposes. Historically, the IAEA found evidence of weapon-related activities under “Project Amad,” which was shut down in 2003. The 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), curbed Iran’s enrichment and allowed strict monitoring until the U.S. withdrew in 2018 under President Trump. Iran responded by gradually breaching its commitments.
The debate over Iran’s intentions remains contentious. Without full transparency and international consensus, any pre-emptive action such as Israel’s airstrikes risks further destabilizing the region and igniting a broader conflict.
